030208_ruselex

Rasul Shadan
tajikistanweb.com
Moscow

020308 - The most predictable poll since the Soviet Union’s collapse has begun in Russia to give a constitutional legality to Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency. Medvedev’s victory is guaranteed by the incumbent President’s active support and latest national polls that have shown 75% of population’s inclination towards Putin’s hand-picked successor.

Medvedev has three opponents, but according to experts’ views, none of them pose serious opposition in his presidential bid. Even his opponents – Gennady Zyuganov, head of the fading Communist Party; Vladimir Zhirinovsky, head of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and a political unknown Andrei Bogdanov – have shown a little confidence in their own success. Former Prime-Minister Mikhail Kasyanov’s candidacy has been thrown off the ballot for allegedly forging signatures on his nominating petitions.

There was one more well-known critic of the Kremlin – Garry Kasparov - who didn’t succeed to enter the ballot, since his supporters were refused rental of a hall in which to hold the mandatory nominating session. Kasparov’s opposition coalition "The Other Russia" plans to hold national rallies throughout Russian regions on Monday in protest at ‘the unconstitutional transfer of power to Dmitry Medvedev’. Their previous demonstrations had been dispersed by Russian police.

As political analyst Alexander Konovalov in Moscow says: "The opposition candidates are like the dancing girls on stage behind a pop singer; they make for better appreciation of the music, but are all in the background." ("Russia’s Election Laws Favor Kremlin Candidate", VOA, 01 March 2008).

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has refused to send observers, AP reports. The influential body believes, Russian authorities were imposing such tight restrictions that it could not work in a meaningful way.

The election will guarantee that the popular incumbent president continues to wield great influence over the Russian politics as the new Prime-Minister. This is a key factor of a low-profile Medvedev’s high-profile position in national polls that has almost totally disarmed his challengers.

In his interview to Amsterdam-based Radio Zamaneh Professor Dmitry Shusharin, an expert on Russian affairs in Moscow said: "Sunday’s election demonstrates Russian people’s indifference in choosing their next President, because they believe Medvedev’s presidency will keep Putin in power."

Some views differ. "Even though Mr Putin will remain close to the centre of power, there are signs that Mr Medvedev does not want to become Mr Putin's puppet," – reads London’s Daily Telegraph special report. The paper quotes Medvedev’s statement made last week: "Russia has great prospects but considerable problems. Such a state can only be controlled with the help of a strong presidential power, regardless of who at any given moment occupies that post in the Kremlin."

The Prime-Minister is subservient to the President under the Russian Consitution. However, Vladimir Putin has already hinted that his premiership will be different from whatever it is now. It has been reported that Putin as the Prime Minister will enjoy expanded powers over military, foreign and security policy; whereas Medvedev’s comparative inexperience in national and international politics will make him rely on Putin’s support and proficiency. Presumably the very factor had motivated Vladimir Putin to anoint a little-known deputy Prime-Minister and chairman of the state gas monopoly Gazprom as the heir to presidency.

Actually in this way Putin will remain the most powerful statesman of the country. In case of Medvedev’s sudden resignation Putin will get back to his presidential duties, bypassing the constitutional provision that bars him from running for president three successive terms. Vladimir Putin has not ruled out returning to the Kremlin at some point and has not hidden his intention to "influence" his successor. Thus, there is a little hope that Russia’s Central Asian policy would undergo any serious revision for years to come.