120208_indiataj

Mansi Mehrotra

Recently the Indian media has highlighted strategic importance of Ayni air base renovated by Indian assistance in Tajikistan. To begin with, India has signed a trilateral agreement with the Government of Tajikistan and Russia to refurbish the Ayni base. In this regard India has been providing technical help and construction of the runway, aircraft hangars and air-control tower. India has maintained its presence at the Ayni base since 2002, spending an estimated $ 1.7 million. In 2003, India conducted its first-ever overseas military exercise with Tajikistan. This included two IAF Antonov 32 transport aircraft that demonstrated their lift capability and a platoon-strength of Special Forces that carried out parachute jumps and other commando exercises. Presently, there are over 150 Indian military personnel stationed at Ayni, which includes an IAF detachment of pilots and support staff for Mi-17 helicopters.

There is a difference between having rights to refurbish an air base and enjoying right to use the air base for military or civilian purpose. In September 2007, when there were reports and discussion on Ayni Air base, Tajik defence ministry clarified that "There are too many rumours around the Ayni aerodrome. At the beginning they claimed that Indian military contingent would be deployed there, and now they say French ones. This aerodrome is a property of Tajikistan, and it is up to the Tajik government and the Defence Ministry to decide who will be deployed there after the reconstruction."

Ayni air base definitely provides strategic depth to India in the sub-continent particularly against its traditional rivals - China and Pakistan. As for Tajikistan, giving India right to have military base will mean straining its relations with China and Pakistan.

Tajikistan and China

Tajikistan-China relation started with contentious border issues that were to be resolved under Shanghai Five [now called Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)]. The most difficult section of border sharing in the Pamirs remained unresolved due to Chinese claim on a considerable part of the Badakshan region. Recently, China has been successful in developing significant relations with Tajikistan. At present, China is one of the biggest investors in Tajikistan. China's interest in Tajikistan arises from its desire to revive ancient Silk Route and both countries share the same apprehensions on the Islamists design. The leadership of Tajikistan has often recognized Chinese as their big brothers (big brothers for Tajiks does not mean that Chinese would dictate their terms) and great neighbours.

China's objective to revive the ancient Silk Road and connecting Tajikistan with the Karakoram highway is aimed at seeking an easy access to Central Asian market. During the Chinese Premier's visit to Dushanbe in June 2006, various bilateral cooperation agreements were signed between the two countries. The most important of them all was the reconstruction of the Dushanbe-Chanak highway that forms part of the old Silk Road running from Kulma (south-east Tajikistan and at Chinese border) to Khorog-Darvaz-Kulab-Dushanbe and the Dushanbe-Khujand-Buston-Chanak highway. This highway would then connect to Uzbekistan. China has also agreed to finance LEP-500 North-South high-voltage power line; its viability study was conducted during the Soviet times. The plan is likely to supply electricity from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan and 220 kv power line Lolazor-Obimazor-Khatlon that would extend to Faizabad area in the Badakshan province of Afghanistan. It is also likely that China wants to develop its western Xinjiang province in order to marginalize the Uyghurs rebels of western Chinese province bordering Tajikistan's eastern mountainous Badakhshan region.

China is actively and aggressively involved in diverse projects in Tajikistan including construction and exporting commodities. The International Monitory Fund report of March 2007 noted that the total loans provided by China are "Although concessional in nature (with grant of 40 percent), the disbursement of these loans will lead to a rapid re-accumulation of debt." As Tajikistan's biggest creditor China is owed $217 million, Tajik officials announced recently.

A large number of Chinese offices have recently opened in Tajikistan. Consequently, Tajiks have been showing interests in sending their children to China for learning Chinese language. The knowledge of Chinese language may provide them with better job opportunities.

Tajikistan and Pakistan

Pakistan was fervently involved in Tajik civil war of 1990s. Pakistan gave refuge and provided support to the Tajik Islamist opposition for continuation of Tajik civil war. In February 1993, in an interview with Interfax in Moscow, Tajik president Imomali Rahmon stated that "Pakistani transport planes were making daily flights to northern Afghanistan to deliver food and arms to refugee camps in the area where Tajik militants were said to be undergoing training by Afghan mojahideen." Earlier, in a Summary of World Broadcast report of August 1991, Anatoliy Belousov, Tajik KGB Deputy Chairman mentioned that "The armed Afghan opposition was being manipulated and schools had been set up in Afghan settlement near the border to give 'military and religious training to young Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmens so that they can subsequently be used to carry out hostilities against the USSR'." Pakistan's intervention in Tajikistan was in continuation with Zia-ul Haq's policy of creating a 'zone of strategic depth' in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Kashmir. These policies were aimed to bring the region under Islamabad's command and to find a gateway to Central Asia for economic, strategic and religious purposes.

In the post-civil war, Tajikistan and Pakistan have been developing their ties. The first Tajik Ambassador to Pakistan Saidbek Saidov was appointed three months before Tajik President Imomali Rahmon's visit to India in August 2006. Pakistan and Tajikistan have also signed about twenty agreements, protocols and memorandums of understanding to extend cooperation in diverse fields on the basis of mutual equality and increase the level of trade. Both countries have been working on the energy transmission line project from Tajikistan to Pakistan via Pole-Khomri and Kabul areas. They have also agreed to cooperate in field of explorations, extraction and processing of gas and oil products. Pakistan has constructed a land route from Totkhum-Jalalabad in Afghanistan to Tajikistan. Tajikistan being a landlocked nation traditionally depends on Uzbekistan for imports and exports, but certain irritants have caused economic hardship in Tajikistan. The Karakoram highway connecting China and Pakistan to Gwadar port in Pakistan provides alternate trade-route to landlocked Tajikistan.

Tajikistan and India

As for Tajikistan-India relations, they share historical ties. For a common Tajik, India is known as Hindustan. Every Tajik dreams of visiting India to see Taj Mahal, which they reflect on as their ancestors' monument and till date Taj Mahal rates above any other foreign tourist destination. Indian cinema is very popular and most young men felt sad hearing the news about Aishwarya Rai's wedding. Despite of having immense fondness for India, Tajiks don't hesitate to show their concern over Indo-US nuclear collaboration at the cost of Iran and Russia's friendship.

India's efforts to develop bilateral relations with Tajikistan are constrained by the psychological distance between the two countries. According to the Foreign Aid Report of 2005, India is one of the few countries providing huge grants to Tajikistan and is involved in the export of important commodities (at the same time it is observed that the Indian products are not visible in Tajik market that is completely taken over by Chinese goods). In addition, India is involved in a few construction projects, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, providing scholarship to Tajik students for higher education in India, and there are more than 200 Indian students studying in the Medical College in Dushanbe. Most of these projects remained at inter-governmental level. The private organizations remain inactive in Tajikistan due to connectivity problem, unfriendly environment for investment, endemic corruption and limited market.

Although India shares good relations with Central Asian countries, Tajiks believe that having India's military base might disturb geo-strategic relations in the region. Boasting about India's airbase in Tajikistan that is still not a reality may act against India's future interest in the region as it would present India as a nation aiming to militarize the region.

At the same time, Russia plays an important role in Tajikistan's strategic decision-making. In the post-disintegration of Soviet Union, Russia became an important player in Tajik civil war, peace resolution, and nation building. Even when Tajikistan was facing crisis during the internal war, Russia never showed its direct intention to colonize the region. It was also because during that time Russia itself was trying to cope with its own economic and security crisis and Tajikistan has always been an economic encumber due to its tough terrains and limited resources. Despite disappointment by Tajiks over Russia's pro-Uzbekistan policy and more or less abandonment of Tajikistan after Andijan, Tajiks still consider Russians as their traditional mentors. Although, Russia remains the biggest supplier of arms to India, there has been souring relations between India and Russia on Indo-US budding relations. The recent developments in international politics are likely to negatively affect India's desire to have its first overseas defence establishment.

In the recent past, joint military and anti-terrorist exercises under the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and SCO, respectively have been a success. In addition, the military exercises and the prospective military presence under the regional organizations do not disturb or threaten regional peace.

Tajikistanweb's Note: Mansi Mehrotra is a PhD aspirant/student at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.