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tajikistanweb.com

A joint statement of three political parties has slightly perturbed the otherwise tranquil political flow in Tajikistan following its harshest winter crisis in decades. On Tuesday Democratic, Social-Democratic and Socialist (the unregistered Nazriyev-run wing) parties slammed the government for bringing about the present political and socio-economic situation and offered "ways out of the situation".

"There is no any sphere of public and state life that has an opportunity to normally function, while bureaucratic system, legal nihilism, crime and corruption have fertile ground for flourishing", Asia-Plus agency quotes the statement.

The three parties are convinced that the Constitution should be amended via a referendum in order to change the current situation. They suggest increasing the number and powers of the parliament’s lower chamber (Majlisi Namayandagan) at the expense of presidential powers.

They also believe that for the sake of transparency and justice, control over the state anti-corruption agency and the Prosecutor-General’s Office should be transferred to the parliament as well. The government’s personnel policy, "regionalism, clan system and personal loyalty" features have been targeted by the three parties as great obstacles to prosperity.

Tajikistan’s loose opposition used to issue joint statements before too. However, the striking difference between Tuesday’s statement and most of those issued earlier was Islamic Renaissance Party’ (IRP)’s absence among the signatories.

Muhyiddin Kabiri, the IRP leader has found fault with the three parties for not going through the points of the statement with him beforehand. Therefore, he states, his party could not sign a document without taking part in its preparation. Furthermore, Kabiri appreciates President Rahmon’s January speech where he admitted that the situation was critical. Kabiri underlines his party’s "constructive opposition" which obliges them to "help the government find solution to existing problems". Moreover, he doesn’t believe that criticizing the government would serve to improve the party’s image.

It is still doubtful if Kabiri has succeeded to consolidate his power within his overwhelmingly conservative party and there is a risk that his frank submission to the government could backfire. Despite its open nature in Kabiri’s Tuesday remarks, his precautious approach towards government’s policies has been a characteristic feature of the IRP leader since he was selected to lead the party in 2006. From the very beginning he has refused to act as an ambitious political leader what has been appraised as pragmatic stance of the new party leader. Reasoning his party’s decision not to field a candidate in 2006 presidential elections, Kabiri had said to RFE/RL’s reporter that the mere presence of such a candidate could bring adverse attention to Tajikistan and its nearly 7 million residents. He was not happy with his opponents’ views about the IRP and wanted to change its image:

"In parliamentary elections, our opponents said the [IRP were] a group that pull the country back...[and] that all the country's problems start with the Islamic Renaissance Party," Kabiri said in October 2006. "They said that all the progress made by democracy and secular government would be in jeopardy [in the event of] a victory by the IRP."

And he had made his position clear enough straight after being elected as the party’s leader:

"We will give them (the government) a chance to show what they will do with this democracy -- how they will use it. Will they be able to manage and protect democracy, or not? Since they claim that if the Islamic Renaissance Party won, Tajikistan would become a second Afghanistan."

It is still obscure though whether Kabiri’s given chance will ever expire. But what seems lucid enough is that the very given chance and the IRP leadership’s considerate approach have been seen as a consolidating element between the government and its former archfoe. The rapprochement has alienated more radical Muslims from the only official Islamic party of the region. As a result, support for Islamic extremism is mounting in Tajikistan. Apart from the outlawed Hizb-ut-tahrir, new religious trends like Salafia and Samaria – both known as Wahhabi outgrowths – are looming throughout the country.

In an apparent attempt to crash the remnants of its official Islamic opponents, the government defended Salafia followers last January by calling them peaceful Muslims similar to Hanafia worshippers with no political goal (Azadi).

IRP leaders are well aware of radical Islamists’ views about the party. Again, in 2006 a senior leader of the IRP in Soghd province Salahiddin Husainzada in an interview to RFE/RL accused the Hizb-ut Tahrir of waging a campaing to discredit his party among the public.

"In some areas – in those regions where groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and others are active – we cannot create a strong presence," Husainzada added. "But in those areas where the Islamic Renaissance Party has a strong presence, there is no sign of Hizb-ut-Tahrir or any other illegal groups."

However, for Tajikistan’s Prosecutor-General Babajan Babakhanov Hizb-ut-Tahrir was neither terrorist nor extremist. The group is spreading its political message exclusively via propaganda, he said last year. The group was left to grow faster at the expense of a belittled IRP’s potential followers. Only last Tuesday Tajikistan’s Supreme Court included Hizb-ut-Tahrir in its list of the extremist groups presumably in order to curb its unexpected rise of popularity.

Thus, for Muhyiddin Kabiri, caught between two fires, it must be extremely difficult to act. Besides, he does not enjoy the previous IRP leader Nuri’s charisma, and unlike Nuri, Kabiri is not noted for his deep schooling in Islam. Therefore, tilting toward the failing government and shunning opposition forces seemingly cannot lead him and his party to a political success.