Just a month ago the Russian Ambassador to Tajikistan Ramazan Abdulatipov was complaining that Tajikistan remained as silent as a stone on Moscow’s new suggestions about its participation in the Raghun Dam construction. The silence was broken by Tajik Premier Aqil Aqilov’s letter to his powerful Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Dushanbe wants Moscow back in the Raghun project.

Addressing Putin instead of President Medvedev could have just one reason: Tajik authorities are well aware of Putin’s weight in Russia’s political establishment. However, it is not the whole picture yet.

Some experts correlate Rahman’s shift in position with the latest events in the Kulab district and Suhrab Langariev’s detention. Suhrab Langariev is a younger brother of Langari Langariev and Salman Langariev’s son. Langariev family members have been among the most prominent commanders of the People’s Front that had facilitated Rahman’s succession to power.

Tajik security services accuse Suhrab Langariev of organizing trans-national drug trafficking bands and of armed burglary. The way he was indicted and detained on 27 May in front of the people of Kulab after a long armed attack on his house has brought back the memories of the bloody civil war. During the ambush by heavy weapons six people were killed, dozens were injured and tens of thousands of dollars vanished. However, the indictment did not satisfy people’s curiosity and cannot win their trust and approval.

Meanwhile, some sources close to the government state that the main reason of the raid on Langariev’s house had been nothing but an attempt to prevent a coup d’etat against the Rahman government. It’s been said that some of the field commanders of the former united opposition front in Badakhshan, Gharm and Vanj had been engaged in the coup plan and they had even enjoyed the backing of some of the high-ranking officials in the central government.

The plot had been revealed after three lorries loaded with weaponry and ammunition were caught and confiscated by Tajik security forces. According to the same sources, the lorries belonged to Suhrab Langariev and were meant to reach the Gharm district in the east. Langariev had purchased the weapons and ammunition in Afghanistan, where the plot supervised by Russians had been patched up, they say. Prior to the ambush against Suhrab Langariev’s house Mahmud Khudayberdyev, the former colonel of the Tajik Defence Ministry in exile, had visited the border areas of Tursunzade in Tajikistan and Sariasia in Uzbekistan for reconnaissance, add the sources. It’s been said that Khudayberdyev was another player of the coup attempt against Rahman.

Russians had chosen Afghanistan in order to leave no trace of their engagement in the plot. There is no doubt that Russians are still omnipotent in the region and Rahman would not be able to build the Raghun Dam without Moscow’s approval. The dam will not be merely a source of light for Tajik households. It will constitute a key centre for regional power control and Russia is not willing to leave it for anybody else. By possessing the Raghun switchboard Russia will be able to fully control most of the region’s economy, agriculture and industry.

Therefore, Rahman felt a deep remorse for his previous lightheadedness and sent a letter to Putin via his Premier Aqilov to ask for Russia’s participation in the Raghun project. He is well aware of Russians’ power and authority and he knows that even hundreds of international banks would not be able to save him from Russia’s wrath. According to bilateral accords, Rahman is eligible to command the 201 division of the Russian Army based in Tajikistan in exceptional situations, but the exception should be defined by Russia.

After being informed of the Russian support for Suhrab Langariev’s cause Rahman has sent a letter to Putin asking for Russia’s participation in the Raghun Dam construction project. There have been many other instances of Rahman’s concessions to regional powers in order to retain his power in past years.

Accordingly, Raghun is not merely a symbol of the national dignity anymore. It is rather a sword hanging over Rahman’s authority.

Nevertheless, the question remains: why did Rahman and his security agencies refrain from declaring the ‘real essence’ of the Suhrab affair? Why didn’t they reveal the plot publicly? Presumably, they have been frightened of the people. To tell the truth, people are tired of Rahman’s rule as well. On the other hand, how to explain to people that most of his former comrades, those who actually brought Rahman to power, are attempting to overthrow his regime? How to prove Ya’qub Salimov, Ghaffar Mirzaev, Mahmud Khudayberdyev and now, Salman Langariev and his sons wrong? How to justify Mahmadruzi Iskandarov’s imprisonment? What can assure people that Rahman is the only righteous person among them? And how long can they put people in jail for their attempts to overthrow Rahman’s government?

The latest developments have shown that Rahman is under both internal and external attacks and even his closest people are mulling over a way to get rid of him.