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190208 - Dushanbe has issued another S.O.S. appealing for over $25 million. But this time the United Nations did it on behalf of the winter-stricken impoverished country. After publicizing their swelling foreign debt figures and numerous help appeals in past, presumably Tajik authorities did not feel comfortable enough to do it themselves.

The UN believes that some two million - that’s almost one third - of the country’s population are suffering from extreme cold, lack of fuel, clean water and ill health. $1.2 million of the amount has been provided for the projects proposed already, leaving an outstanding requirement of $24 million. There is no guarantee that a huge bulk of the assistance will not disappear in a mysterious black-hole before reaching the needy, say sceptics in Dushanbe.

The weather has started showing mercy to the country and yesterday it was mild and even sunny in the capital. But the aftermath of the cold wave is no better than the cold itself. Still the main urban centres are getting less than 10 hours of electricity a day, hospitals suffer from unreliable power supply, and people are carrying water in buckets from outside as water pumps depend on electricity too. Hydroelectric power stations’ capacity is set to remain at 40 percent until coming spring.

With the spring more problems could riddle Tajik authorities, if they will let it catch them off-guard as the winter did. Atypical snowfall of this winter might bring about abnormal floods and landslides in the spring. But now, according to the United Nations, at least 260 000 people are in need of immediate food assistance.

The cold wave has not targeted Tajikistan only. All Central Asian countries have been undergoing the nature’s test of survival and all of them, except for Tajikistan, passed probably the worst part of it without resorting to humiliating help appeals. It could be argued that others are enjoying abundant energy resources and even can afford exporting their excess electricity. But it is a well-known fact that none of them are as much endowed with hydropower resources as Tajikistan. 16 years of bragging about ambitious energy projects have been proved to be a sheer bluff.

Tajik authorities deeply absorbed in their "re-creation of an Aryan nation" while totally dependant on Russia, have suddenly realized that the Russian shield is slipping away to cover their archenemy Uzbekistan.

Tashkent changed hands several times following whatever way the political wind blows. But Dushanbe was convinced that its utter loyalty and semi-colonial position would never deter Russia from cherishing its poor but faithful ally. In order to secure Russian exclusive love Tajikistan (unlike other Central Asian nations) did not nationalize Soviet military establishment in its own territory and had to build a national army from scratch. And that was not the only bit of the Soviet heritage that Tajikistan gave away for the sake of a strong protector – Russia. Feeling the cold breeze blowing from the Kremlin in October 2004 Dushanbe signed a paper and transferred its own unique airspace surveillance complex in Narak (Nurek) to Russian jurisdiction. Tajikistan’s economic sphere was an open space for Russian entrepreneurs as granted. Most valuable contracts were stashed away to be presented solely to Russia. All concessions and presents notwithstanding, Russia ran out on Dushanbe with a repenting but powerful Islam Karimov.

Karimov is ruthlessly pursuing his plans to hinder Tajikistan’s energy projects encouraged by his success in sabotaging Dushanbe’s contract with RusAl to accomplish the Ragun hydroelectric power station on the Vakhsh River. Now a desperate Dushanbe is ready to give a contract without usual bargaining to Kazakhstan to build the long-awaited Ragun Dam. No wonder if tomorrow Islam Karimov will be cruising around Astana on his Mercedes to persuade Nursultan Nazarbaev to rethink his project in Tajikistan. Karimov believes that building dams on rivers that run through the soils of several countries first should be discussed with all relevant countries. In its analytical report on the issue Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta claims that Karimov’s anticipation is reasonable. But perhaps all Uzbekistani gas is running from underneath the Tajik soil and based on that logic one could argue why the same approach shouldn’t be applied in regard to Uzbek gas.

Islam Karimov got the Russian dobro (approval) and it is explained at length in a paper signed between Putin and Karimov on February 7. That means Uzbekistan secured Russia’s support on the matter.

"By signing under the declaration as suggested by Tashkent, Moscow showed what side it was on. It was a message to Dushanbe that the Kremlin was on Tashkent’s side on the matter," Nezavisimaya Gazeta quotes Andrey Grozin of the Department of Central Asia in the Institute of the CIS researches.

Vladimir Putin did allow himself to bear Karimov’s airs since he knew what he would get in return: the most populous nation in the region with plentiful of natural resources and a convenient geopolitical location. Airs Rahmon can’t afford to put on. Therefore, in his harshest natural crisis he did not run to the Kremlin, but headed off to Tehran and welcomed Astana’s intention to invest in Tajikistan’s hydro economy. And we should not be surprised if tomorrow the United States will go beyond its plans to invest in the Dashtijum hydroelectric power plant. Emomali Rahmon is seeking a protector of his reign.