The ambiguity in official responses has sparked rumours that the real purpose of the troops' relocation could be detaining some unruly field commanders in Badakhshan. The governor promised to rectify all concerns of the protesters until Monday, 23 June. Dadajan Atavullaev, the leader of Vatandaar movement based in Moscow believes that Badakhshani events are just the beginning of a much broader upheaval in Tajikistan.

D. Atavullaev: Recent events in Badakhshan have proved once again that Tajikistan is on the brink of a serious political turmoil. It is hard to foretell what is going to happen during and after the storm, what will be swept away and what will remain. However, there is no doubt that the political storm has begun. Neither Rahmonov himself, nor his Interior Minister Solehov nor any other member of Rahmonov’s cabinet would be able to repulse it.

Tajikistanweb: What do you mean by ‘the storm’? Do you think the repetition of the 1992-97 bloody events is possible, God forbid, or something else ought to happen?

D. Atavullaev: I think people’s tolerance has reached its limits. I believe, if political parties and organisations in Tajikistan would choose to function properly this year, they could succeed to force the government to resign. Of course, it is probable that the government would try to cling on power by repressing protests. Actually, the main reason for dispatching troops with plentiful weapons and ammunition to Badakhshan was nothing but an attempt to crack down on opposition activists, on the organisers of the rally, and those who long for freedom.

Tajikistanweb: But the rally took place only after the troops entered Badakhshan, didn’t it?

D. Atavullaev: Yes, it did. The date of the protest gathering, however, had been announced much earlier. Therefore, the troops arrived in Badakhshan prior to the event. Badakhshani people’s bravery, vigilance and unity made the government restrain from using force for the time being. Government’s retreat and pause do not imply its humanistic nature, of course. They are too weak to act violently now. They wish to eliminate whoever who raises his voice against the government. But this time they were not self-confident enough.

Tajikistanweb: If the government would gain the confidence to resist people’s demands and if a skirmish would occur and blood would be shed, do you think a positive result will come out of the chaos?

D. Atavullaev: This government has walked to power on the path of blood. Its leader has declared many times that he’d come through bloodshed and would leave through bloodshed. Dushanbe keeps frightening people by bloodshed. And people are really frightened of bloodshed. But people who gathered in Badakhshan were not seeking bloodshed. They had announced beforehand that the rally was about basic matters of concern of the country’s inhabitants.

Tajikistanweb: Could any parallels be drawn between the events in Badakhshan and Suhrab Langariev’s detention in Kulab?

Atavullaev: I think the last winter events in Qarategin (Rasht), the government’s unsuccessful attempt to arrest Mirzakhoja Ahmadov, happenings in Kulab and now Badakhshan are all links in the same chain. On the same day of the government forces’ arrival in Kharogh (Badakhshan) people from Rasht (in the east) and Kulab (in the south) started heading to Kharogh as well in order to support Badakhshani people and their demands at the rally. Dushanbe had been informed about it and many politicians and journalists had been summoned by the Committee of National Security in Dushanbe. The committee warned them not to take any action with regard to Badakhshani events.

Tajikistanweb: Some people are worried that regionalism could be the main cause of the demonstration in Badakhshan. Does it match your assessments too?

D. Atavullaev: Not really. Well, regionalism could be a minor factor, but not the main one. People in Badakhshan as anywhere else in Tajikistan are fed up with their miserable lives, problems, and disappointments. In November Tajik labour migrants start returning from other countries. I suppose after their return, perhaps from January till March, Tajikistan will be in the grip of massive protests. The leadership of the Vatandaar movement have decided to hold demonstrations throughout the three months within Tajikistan in collaboration with other parties and organisations who support our goals. Our demonstrations will be totally peaceful with the sole demand of Rahmon’s resignation. His government has no other choice.

Tajikistanweb: Is Vatandaar somehow related to the recent happenings in Tajikistan?

D. Atavullaev: Yes, Vatandaar supporters and activists are present in whatever is going on in the country now and the government is aware of the fact. People have been interrogated at the Committee of National Security in Dushanbe about their ties with Dadajan Atavullaev and Vatandaar and whether I give them phone calls. I wonder why the officials are looking for a black cat in a dark room. They see their enemy, opponent and rival in anybody’s face, but fail to look at themselves and see the real originators of people’s problems. They themselves have triggered protest demonstrations by their unwise actions. People want only to secure their basic rights.

Tajikistanweb: Is there any way to reach people’s demands without resorting to rallies and disorder? Could another chance be given to the government to remain in power, improve its image and correct its blunders?

D. Atavullaev: The government of Tajikistan is paralysed and inflicted by all incurable diseases that exist in the world of politics. Even if one beautiful morning Rahmonov would wake up to repent for his blunders and sins and take an oath in the name of whatever he pleases (he’s fond of taking oaths indeed), nothing will change. The Rahmonov-built system has reached the limits of its capacity; it cannot be remade, restructured or repaired. It has simply expired and should be replaced. Rahmonov’s only choice is to leave as his government is totally useless now.

Tajikistanweb: Let’s suppose that Rahmon accepts to step down. Is there any provisional government envisaged that could take on his duties straight away or will the country remain in turmoil for a longer while?

D. Atavullaev: There are two possibilities: with Rahmanov losing the grip on the country’s affairs presumably various groups will try to fight their way to power. Unless the ‘political elite’ of Tajikistan will try to unite and hold fair elections.

Tajikistanweb: Are you going to discuss these issues at your Tuesday press conference?

D. Atavullaev: No, I’m not. On Tuesday I’d like to attract the international community’s attention to problems of the people in Tajikistan via mass media. I’ll ask the world/regional powers to spare Tajikistan in their geopolitical games. I’ll urge our fellow Tajik citizens within the country and abroad to feel responsible for the fate of Tajikistan and unite, so that the past could never come back and Tajikistan could never roll back into the ditch of civil war. Our bereaved land cannot stand another war. The next revolution will be a bloodless one led mainly by women. As you might know, most of our latest demonstrations in Tajikistan during the past year were organised by women.

Rahmonov’s regime has been gulling Russia and milking it for the last 15 years. Now Rahmonov has turned into a so-called ‘pro-Western democrat’ in the hope to fool the West as well. Certainly, he has not even a slightest respect to democratic values of the West. All he wants is to secure his and his family’s bank accounts in western banks.

Rahmonov’s regime is an illegitimate government that usurped power through a parliamentary coup d’etat and rolled into the capital on foreigners’ military technology. How can we stand still and watch how our children die in winter and how our academicians and teachers turn into slaves in foreign labour markets? This regime has no moral right to exist.