260208_putinrahmon

tajikistanweb.com

Russian President Putin has pledged more fuel aid for Tajikistan, St.-Petersburg Times reports. During Tajik President Rahmon’s visit to Moscow he was loudly informed that some diesel fuel and mobile power generators had been dispatched to the winter-stricken country. The volume of the ‘additional aid’ has not been clarified by the paper.

After a lengthy description of Tajikistan’s winter misery, Russia’s northern paper suddenly jumps from a humanitarian topic to a political one and evaluates current Russo-Tajik ties. According to St.-Petersburg Times, they have been strained in recent times. As if elaborating the grounds of unfavourable relations between the two countries, the paper gives a detailed account of Rahmon’s eccentric acts commencing from the recent ones: dropping the Slavic "-ov" off his surname tail and banning "registration of newborn babies with Russian-sounding names". St.-Petersburg Times does not mention that ethnic Russian newborns in Tajikistan can still have their Slavic surnames registered.

Then it goes further back to explore Rahmon’s ire with gold teeth subsequently outlawed by his personal decree, "because he said it would be impossible to secure loans from international aid organizations when village teachers could demonstrate such wealth."

Previously unnoticed personality cult built by Tajik president has started irritating the Russian paper too as it adds: "Seven of Rahmon’s books, including "Emomali Rahmonov – the Nation’s Saviour", form part of the national school curriculum."

Just few months ago Russian papers had no complaint with regard to Rahmon’s otherwise outrageous personality cult. There were better times when Russian media were employed to boost the very personality cult by publishing glassy magazines totally dedicated to Rahmon (then Rahmonov). One of them had quoted Vladimir Putin (then Prime-Minister of Russia) as saying: "Emomali Rahmonov occupies one of the leading positions among the CIS politicians, and not accidentally. All his efforts demonstrate a really unique peace process going on in Tajikistan." (V. Putin, Ogonek, 1999).

How come he’s fallen from grace all of a sudden? Or was it really sudden?

The fall skilfully orchestrated by the Russian media was rather gradual. After Tashkent’s Andijan U-turn all Russo-Tajik grandiose contracts started collapsing with a domino effect. The ones that have survived were commenced before the U-turn was complete and still Russian authorities were trying to console their alarmed Tajik counterparts that Uzbekistan’s glorious return would not affect their ties with Dushanbe. A disgraced America was trying every possible niche in the region to relocate its troops driven out of the inhospitable Uzbek land. In the aftermath of the Andijan scandal Donald Rumsfeld (then the Defence Secretary of the States) visited Dushanbe three times. Condy Rice tried to use her charms as well followed by many other American officials. Rahmon was deeply thoughtful and mute on those days mulling over the superpower’s military proposals that sparked Russia’s jealousy even more furiously. Rahmon lost a substantial degree of Putin’s trust, hammered under Karimov’s anti-Tajik rhetoric, before he made his position clear and upset American "military refugees" as well.

It’s doubtful that Rahmon will ever see his smiling picture on a glassy cover of an exclusive Russian magazine again, as it is not only a provincial St.-Petersburg Times that has chosen to lash him instead of brushing. Russian "experts" Sergey Mikheev, Andrey Grozin and others alike have been using their pens that are mightier than the sword against Russia’s Tajik ex-favourite. Grozin in his exclusive "analysis" for KM.ru predicts that destabilizing Tajikistan will cost merely $1.5 million, which means any Russian oligarch could have his own puppet in place of Rahmon if he pleases. On the other hand Mikheev has shaped a new mental political map where the most populous province of Tajikistan – Soghd belongs to its northern neighbour.

The clock is ticking ruthlessly for Rahmon. Russian foreign policy is not going to change, since it is believed Putin will not leave the rudder through the year 2020. That is exactly the year Rahmon has planned to part with his presidential chair. But will he last till then?